July 10, 2008, 8:38 PM CT

Long Wait Before Next China Quake?

A new analysis of the setting for May's devastating earthquake in China shows that the quake resulted from faults with little seismic activity--and that similar events in that area occur, on average, only once every 2,000 to 10,000 years. However, geologists caution that because earthquakes can sometimes occur in clusters, people should still be wary of another possible large-scale earthquake.

Clark Burchfiel and Leigh Royden, geologists at MIT, have done extensive research in China for more than two decades but had found no hints that suggested such a large earthquake might strike the area.

They and his colleagues, including MIT's Robert van der Hilst and Bradford Hager, have published a paper analyzing the causes of the quake in the recent issue of the journal GSA Today.

"This is an excellent example of how long-term support of basic research can provide valuable insights into the cause of a major natural disaster," says Leonard Johnson, program director in the National Science Foundation's Division of Earth Sciences, which funded the research.

The magnitude 7.9 quake struck Sichuan province on May 12, 2008, at around noon, which may have increased the human death toll because a number of children were at school. The school buildings turned out to be particularly vulnerable to collapse because of poor construction......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

July 10, 2008, 8:28 PM CT

Methane Formation in the Oceans

A new pathway for methane formation in the oceans has been discovered, with significant potential for advancing our understanding of greenhouse gas production on Earth, researchers believe.

A paper on the findings, reported in the July 2008, issue of the journal Nature Geoscience, reveals that decomposition of a phosphorus-containing compound called methylphosphonate may be responsible for an unexpected supersaturation of methane in the oceans' oxygen-rich surface waters.

Through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Center for Microbial Oceanography: Research and Education (C-MORE), oceanographer David Karl of the University of Hawaii and microbiologist Edward DeLong of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, co-authors of the Nature Geoscience paper, are working to learn how and when microbes turn on and off their methane production genes in response to methane precursors like methylphosphonate.

"This newly recognized pathway of methane formation needs to be incorporated into our thinking about global climate change," says Karl.

Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide on a per weight basis. Eventhough the volume of methane in the atmosphere is less than carbon dioxide, methane is much more efficient at trapping the long wavelength radiation that keeps our planet habitable. It's also responsible, therefore, for increased greenhouse warming......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

July 8, 2008, 6:43 PM CT

How intense will storms get?

A new mathematical model indicates that dust devils, water spouts, tornadoes, hurricanes and cyclones are all born of the same mechanism and will intensify as climate change warms the Earth's surface.

The new equation, developed by University of Michigan atmospheric and planetary scientist Nilton Renno, could allow researchers to more accurately calculate the maximum expected intensity of a spiraling storm based on the depth of the troposphere and the temperature and humidity of the air in the storm's path. The troposphere is the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere.

This equation improves upon current methods, Renno says, because it takes into account the energy feeding the storm system and the full measure of friction slowing it down. Current thermodynamic models make assumptions about these variables, rather than include actual quantities.

"This model allows us to relate changes in storms' intensity to environmental conditions," Renno said. "It shows us that climate change could lead to increases in how efficient convective vortices are and how much energy they transform into wind. Fueled by warmer and moister air, there will be stronger and deeper storms in the future that reach higher into the atmosphere".

Renno and research scientist Natalia Andronova used the model to quantify how intense they expect storms to get based on current climate predictions. For every 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit that the Earth's surface temperature warms, the intensity of storms could increase by at least a few percent, the researchers say. For an intense storm, that could translate into a 10 percent increase in destructive power......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

July 3, 2008, 9:00 PM CT

Extended cyclone relief efforts aided from space

Earth observation satellites have provided vital information to relief workers in Myanmar throughout a especially long crisis response window following the devastating Cyclone Nargis that hit the country on 2 and 3 May 2008.

Immediately after the disaster, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) asked the International Charter on 'Space and Major Disasters', referred to as 'the Charter', for support by providing immediate crisis mapping of the affected areas.

Following the request, rapid mapping products were created with Earth observation (EO) satellite acquisitions taken in the wake of the event to derive an estimation of the flood surge impact and other damage information to help plan emergency response operations.

Damage maps were able to be created quickly because the RESPOND project, which delivers satellite mapping for disaster reduction and humanitarian aid, had delivered EO-derived topographic maps of Myanmar a month before the disaster.

This activity was part of a project to help local communities reduce exposure to disaster risks. This enabled the RESPOND team to compare up-to-date basic maps before the disaster with satellite images acquired during or after the cyclone impact.

Thanks to the Charter more than 10 different sensors - radar and optical - from several EO missions provided more than 60 satellite images, which were used to derive 29 damage maps......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

June 18, 2008, 8:44 PM CT

Ocean temperatures and sea level increases

New research suggests that ocean temperature and associated sea level increases between 1961 and 2003 were 50 percent larger than estimated in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

The results are published in the June 19 edition of the journal Nature. An international team of researchers, including Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientist Peter Gleckler, compared climate models with improved observations that show sea levels rose by 1.5 millimeters per year in the period from 1961-2003. That equates to an approximately 2½-inch increase in ocean levels in a 42-year span.

The ocean warming and thermal expansion rates are more than 50 percent larger than prior estimates for the upper 300 meters of oceans.

The research corrected for small but systematic biases recently discovered in the global ocean observing system, and uses statistical techniques that "infill" information in data-sparse regions. The results increase scientists' confidence in ocean observations and further demonstrate that climate models simulate ocean temperature variability more realistically than previously thought.

"This is important for the climate modeling community because it demonstrates that the climate models used for assessing sea-level rise and ocean warming tie in closely with the observed results," Gleckler said......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

June 16, 2008, 9:28 PM CT

Lower Midwest braces for flood onslaught

Residents of the central and southern Midwest are crossing their fingers, saying their prayers, planning evacuations, and in some cases filling sandbags in preparation for the excessive water ravishing communities in Iowa and Wisconsin.

"The flood wave is propagating down the Mississippi River towards St. Louis at about the pace of a brisk walk," said Robert E. Criss, Ph.D., professor of earth and planetary sciences in Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis. "Some areas north of St. Louis in Missouri and southern Iowa are bracing for the second worst flood in their history. This is serious water."

Criss is a geologist. One of his specialties is hydrogeology. He said that the floodwaters are projected to crest at St. Louis at 38 feet on June 22 or 23, marking the 11th time since the Civil War that St. Louis has reached that flood stage. During the flood of 1993 waters at St. Louis crested at 49.6 feet.

The Missouri River at St. Charles on June 13 was 27.6 feet That's close to three feet above flood stage, and it is still rising.

"The water already is in place," Criss noted. "Projecting it downstream doesn't rely on weather predictions."

Indeed, more precipitation is the wild card.

"More rainfall is only going to make problems worse," Criss said. "If the region gets significantly more precipitation during the week of June 16, it could make a place like Winfield, Mo. surpass even its flood of '93 totals."........ Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

June 10, 2008, 9:06 PM CT

Rapid Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice

The rate of climate warming over northern Alaska, Canada, and Russia could more than triple during periods of rapid sea ice loss, as per a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The findings raise concerns about the thawing of permafrost, or permanently frozen soil, and the potential consequences for sensitive ecosystems, human infrastructure, and the release of additional greenhouse gases.

"Our study suggests that, if sea-ice continues to contract rapidly over the next several years, Arctic land warming and permafrost thaw are likely to accelerate," says lead author David Lawrence of NCAR.

The study, by researchers from NCAR and the National Snow and Ice Data Center, will be published Friday in Geophysical Research Letters. It was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and by the National Science Foundation, NCAR's sponsor.

The research was spurred in part by events last summer, when the extent of Arctic sea ice shrank to more than 30 percent below average, setting a modern-day record. From August to October last year, air temperatures over land in the western Arctic were also uncommonly warm, reaching more than 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above the 1978-2006 average and raising the question of whether or not the uncommonly low sea-ice extent and warm land temperatures were related......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

June 3, 2008, 10:14 PM CT

Alaska Space Grant program launches B.E.A.R.

AlaskaThe Alaska Space Grant Program and the Arctic Amateur Radio Club formed the Balloon Experiment And Research Programor B.E.A.R. for shortin December 2007. The program's aim was to launch a high altitude balloon equipped with two amateur radio signals and more from Poker Flat Research Range in the spring of 2008. On May 10, BEAR participants met to inflate and launch their first balloon. It flew as high as 95,327 feet above Fairbanks in three hours, capturing more than 100 photos and video during its flight.

The balloon had three payloads in tow, all built and designed by Dan Wietchy of the Fairbanks-based Arctic Amateur Radio Club. The packages performed well, allowing B.E.A.R. participants to track and document the balloon's flight, and its subsequent recovery. The balloon was found less than seven miles from where it was launched at Poker Flat Research Range.

The Alaska Space Grant Program intends to expand B.E.A.R. into a larger program that will allow University of Alaska Fairbanks students the opportunity to fly payloads of their own design, and to conduct atmospheric research in the spring and fall. Faculty from the Geophysical Institute already are interested in designing graduate-level courses that will take advantage of this new arena to bolster hands-on student research......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

May 22, 2008, 10:03 PM CT

Pacific coast turning more acidic

An international team of researchers surveying the waters of the continental shelf off the West Coast of North America has discovered for the first time high levels of acidified ocean water within 20 miles of the shoreline, raising concern for marine ecosystems from Canada to Mexico.

Scientists aboard the Wecoma, an Oregon State University research vessel, also discovered that this corrosive, acidified water that is being upwelled seasonally from the deeper ocean is probably 50 years old, suggesting that future ocean acidification levels will increase since atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide have increased rapidly over the past half century.

Results of the study were published this week in Science Express.

When the upwelled water was last at the surface, it was exposed to an atmosphere with much lower CO₂ (carbon dioxide) levels than todays, pointed out Burke Hales, an associate professor in the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences at Oregon State University and an author on the Science study. The water that will upwell off the coast in future years already is making its undersea trek toward us, with ever-increasing levels of carbon dioxide and acidity.

The coastal ocean acidification train has left the station, Hales added, and there not much we can do to derail it......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source

May 21, 2008, 9:48 PM CT

Earth may hide a lethal carbon cache

CARBON buried in the Earth could ultimately determine the fate of our planets atmosphere. So concluded a pioneering meeting last week about the Earths long-neglected deep carbon cycle.

Carbon is locked away down in the Earths crust: in magma and old carbonate rocks buried by plate tectonics, in fossil fuels like coal and oil, and in ice lattices beneath the ocean bed. It has long been assumed that this carbon was largely cut off from the surface, and could safely be ignored when analysing the effect of greenhouse gases on climate.

Now it seems there may be much more deep carbon ready to spew out than we thought.

This realisation could have profound implications for our climate, argues Robert Hazen of the Carnegie Institution, who organised the meeting at the institutions Geophysical Laboratory in Washington DC. We may be on the verge of a transformational momenta glimpse of new, unexplored scientific territory, he says.

Perhaps the greatest threat of an unexpected release of carbon from the deep comes from an indirect effect of human-made CO2. Global warming could destabilise some deep carbon reserves, notably in clathrates - ice lattices which are found beneath the ocean floor and continental permafrost, and even under freshwater lakes like Lake Baikal in Siberia (pictured). These ice structures may hold trillions of tonnes of methane......... Posted by: Tyler      Read more         Source